Who Are the Interested But Concerned, and Why Are They So Important?

In the world of urban cycling and transportation planning, few frameworks have been as influential as Roger Geller's "Four Types of Cyclists" typology. Developed in 2006 while serving as the Bicycle Coordinator for the City of Portland, Oregon, Geller's categorization has fundamentally changed how we think about bicycle planning and, crucially, how we understand the true demand for safe cycling infrastructure. And, fun fact, at the time of this writing, Roger Geller is still the Bicycle Coordinator for the Portland Bureau of Transportation.

The mistake that most city planners and city leaders make when it comes to estimating or understanding the true demand for safe cycling infrastructure is basing estimates of demand on existing levels of cycling. Why is this approach misguided? Because it doesn’t factor in latent demand. What does latent demand mean in this context? Allow our friend Jeff Speck to explain via this compelling analogy from his book, "Walkable City":

Imagine two villages separated by a small, but crocodile-infested river. No one has been swimming across the river to get from one village to the other. Does that mean that there is no demand for a bridge, or some type of safe transportation between the villages? No, of course not. It simply means that no one, or almost no one, is willing to risk their life by swimming with the crocodiles to get across the river. Similarly, the small number of people currently cycling on dangerous streets is a poor indicator of how many would cycle if safe infrastructure existed.

This is where Geller's framework becomes particularly powerful. Through his years of experience working with Portland's cycling community, he identified four distinct groups, with one group emerging as the key to understanding cycling's true potential in our cities.

1. The "Strong and Fearless" cyclists, estimated at less than 1% of the population, are the equivalent of those who might brave the crocodile-infested waters. They will ride regardless of roadway conditions. They are comfortable sharing the road with automotive traffic even in the absence of any bicycle-specific infrastructure.
2. The "Enthused and Confident" group, approximately 7% of the population, represents cyclists who are comfortable riding in most conditions but prefer using dedicated bicycle infrastructure. While more numerous than the first group, they still represent a small fraction of the population.
3. The most significant revelation of Geller's typology is the "Interested but Concerned" group, making up about 60% of the population. This massive group represents the latent demand for cycling infrastructure. These individuals like the idea of bicycling and may even own bikes, but they have significant concerns about safety, particularly when it comes to sharing the road with motor vehicles. They are waiting for their bridge across the crocodile-infested river – in this case, protected bike lanes and low-stress street networks that would allow them to feel safe while cycling.
4. The final category, "No Way, No How," representing approximately 33% of the population, includes those who are currently not interested in bicycling for transportation, whether due to physical limitations, lack of interest, or other factors.